Blog#215 Mexican Open 

Blog#215 Mexican Open 

Feb 20-23, 2025 

Vidanta Vallarta MX Par 71

Purse $8.5M+400K +5%

HISTORY

This is the 4th year that this tournament is played at this venue.  Field of 132 players and talent is about the same as last year.  Only 4 of the top 50 are playing.  Last year Knapp & Valimaki had a very competitive final RD until Valimaki bogied #10 & #13 to lose by 2.  However this year I don’t see anyone winning outside the favorites.

FAVORITES

1 Akshay Bhatia 20/1 Highest ranked player in field #37FedX #30 OWGR, should win.

1 Stephen Jaegar 20/1 Finished 4th last year and could win. 

1 Kurk Kitayama 20/ 1 A good player who competes, but never wins.

4 Patrick Rogers 22/1 Had a chance to win last week, if he plays like that he wins.

4 Sam Stevens 22/1 Finished 2nd at TY The Farmers a late bogie or he may have won.

6 Aaron Rai 25/1 Won Wyndham last year and has not done much since.

7 Beau Hossler 28/1 He had a decent Fall but no wins.

7 Michael Kim 28/1 Had 3 bogie free RDs at Waste Management on only 1 in RD4.

8 Ben Griffin 33/1 He had a few near misses last year, and could win this one.

MY WINNER 

Patrick Rogers was in the top 5 1st 3 RDs last week and led after RD3 and finished tied for 3rd.  If not for the outstanding play of Aberg & McNealy in RD4, he would have won.  With this field, if he duplicates last week he wins.

LONG-SHOTS

1 Jake Knapp 40/1 Won last year and will have a good following.  Finished 17th last week after making tournament as a 1st alternate when Tiger withdrew, and won $270K.  He would have to make the top 5 in this tournament to match that $ number.  

2 Rasmus Hojgaard N/O Had a terrible week last week but contended at Waste Management.

3 Sami Valimaki N/O Now #164 OWGR #2 last year but little chance of coming close this time.

4 Harry Higgs N/O Always on my LS’s, played well at American Express #8 on first RD.

COMMENTARY

This is one of the tournaments that as early as next year may not be a part of the PGA TOUR.

An agreement between PIF (LIV) & PGA may be near, as the PGA has requested that President Trump become involved.  Johnson Wagner of Golf Chanel commented on Monday Feb 17, that he feels when an agreement is reached the PGA TOUR as we know now may be reduced to 25 events, and I agree with him.  This year there are 39 plus 7 Fall tournaments. 

As I see it the future 25 will be;

Four Majors, 8 signatures, 3 FedX events, W/M Phones Open, The Farmers, Byron Nelson, Canadian Open, Scottish Open and 4 others.  This one could survive in order to keep some international flavor, now its down to 3 others.