Blog #129 April 8, 2024 VALERO TEXAS OPEN Apr 4 to 7, 2024 

Blog 129 April 8, 2024 VALERO TEXAS OPEN Apr 4 to 7, 2024 

TPC Oak Course San Antonio TX Par 72 Purse $9.2 + 200K 2%

Coverage for this tournament will be the same as the Valspar Championship.  The 156 man field is much stronger as these secondary tournaments should be.  More well known players are participating as a warm up for the Masters.  Lets see if one of the top 10 picks win.

HISTORY 

Tournament started in 1922, the 3rd oldest and has always been played in San Antonio.  It is a much stronger field than last year when Cory Connors won.  Last year he was picked as the 2nd favorite at 17/1 behind current LIV member Terrell Hatton at 13/1 who was never a factor. 

FAVORITES One of these players should win, and I will track them all 4 RDs.

Rory McIlroy 9.5/1 Finished 19th at the Players with 5 balls in the water, Masters tune up.

Ludvig Aberg 15/1 Played well in last 2 RDs of Players, finished 8th, could win.

Jordan Spieth 19/1 Missed cut at Players, too many bogies.

Colin Morikawa 19/1 I don’t think he has found his game yet.

H. Matsuyama 19/1 Started strong at Arnold Palmer.  Four good RDs and he could win.

Cory Connors 24/1 Very difficult to repeat, has won twice.  Not having a very good year.

Max Homa 24/1 Has been very erratic since great showing at Ryder Cup. 

Matt Fitzpatrick 27/1 Was in the running at Players, good longshot.

Brian Harman 30/1 Finished 2nd at Players, had a chance to win.

Tommy Fleetwood 30/1 When will he get a PGA win?

Billy Horschel 32/1 Had lowest final RD 64 at Houston. 

COMMENTS ON TOURNAMENTS WITH SMALLER PURSES (BUT NOT A WEAK FIELD)

AND RECENT MERGERS IN 3 OF THE 4 MAJOR PROFESSIONAL SPORTS

There were only 4 big name players last week (I had left out Tony Finau who almost won).

This years purse has the smallest increase from last year (200K).  There are 20 or more recognizable names, so the purse does not seem to be a factor.

Here is how the mergers between 3 of the 4 major sports took place.

NFL/AFL1970 The new league started in 1960 with 8 teams.  Boston Patriots, Dallas Texans, Denver Broncos, Houston Oilers, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, NY Titans and Oakland Raiders.  It took 10 years for the 2 leagues to merge which was helped by the NYJets signing Joe Namath in 1965.  The NFL & AFL agreed to merge in 1966 and it was finalized in 1970.  

NBA/ABA 1976 Similar to NFL/AFL in that the ABA was formed in 1967 and signed top college stars Julius Erving and Artis Gilmore.  It operated until 1976 when the NBA agreed to accept 4 of the 6 ABA teams, NY Nets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers and the San Antonio Spurs.  The other 2, Kentucky Colonels and St Louis were compensated by the 4 other ABA teams.

NHL/WHA 1979 The WHA was formed in 1972 with 12 teams.  They signed aging stars like Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull to huge contracts and brought along young stars like Wayne Gretzky .  However in 1979 the WHA “died” and their 4 best teams Edmonton Oilers, Hartford Whalers, Quebec Nordiques and Winnipeg Jets became expansion teams in the NHL.

PGA/LIV With the current makeup of these 2 groups it is doubtful that their merger can mirror the above.  My opinion is that the current team format and other features of LIV are not compatible with the current makeup of the PGA which has worked since 2016.

RESULTS OF THE VALERO TEXAS OPEN

ROUND 1 51 of 156 under par. (7 of top 10)

1 Akshay Bhatia-9 63(55/1) Has missed 4 cuts this year, 9 birdies 5 of last 7 holes.WINS $1.7M

2 Justin Lower-6 67(300/1) 35 yrs old bogie free 6 birdies.  Finishes 25-4 

2 Brandon Todd-6 67(100/1) Seven birdies 1 bogie. Finishes 5-9

4 Max Homa-4 68 Five birdies but bogies 18.  74 Rd 2.  Finishes 25-4

8 Rory McIlroy-3 69 Bogie free with 3 birdies.  Finishes 3-11 Shoots bogie free 66.

17 Cory Connors-2 70  One eagle 3 birdies 3 bogies. Finishes 25-4

17 Colin Morikawa-2 70 Two bogies 2 birdies. Finishes 75+5

30 Brian Harman-1 71 Three birdies 2 bogies.  Finishes 25-4  

30 Matt Fitzpatrick-1 71 Four birdies 3 bogies, shoots 74 RD2.  Finishes 10-6  

30 Tommy Fleetwood-1 71 Bogies 1st hole then birdies 2/3/18, bogies 10 Finishes 7-8

52 Ludvig Aberg E 72 Two birdies front 9 two bogies back.  Finishes 14-5

80 H Matsuyama+1 73 4 bogies 3 birdies.  Finishes 7-8

80 Jordan Spieth+1 73 5 bogies 3 birdies,  then DB 14 Aces 16 birdies 17.  Finishes 10-6

120 Billy Horschel+3 75 Awful start DB 2nd then bogies 3rd & 4th, out of it on 1st 4 holes.

ROUND 2

1 Akshay Bhatia-11 70 Starts bogie birdie then 1 bogie and 3 more birdies..

2 Brandon Todd-6 72 Four bogies & 4 birdies.

2 Russell Henley-6 69(35/1) Back to back 69’s up 6 spots.

2 Danny McCarthy-6(75/1) 70 Up from #4, Four birdies 2 bogies.  Finishes 2-20

5 Rory McIlroy-5 70 Starts with birdie on his 5th hole then 2 more birdies and 1 bogie.

6 Tommy Fleetwood-4 69 Starts with 3 pars then 3 birdies and at the rest pars 

10 Jordan Spieth-3 68 Birdies 4 of 1st 5 holes, finishes with 3 bogies & 3 birdies.  Up 70 spots. 

34 Matsuyama-1 70 Two bogies 4 birdies.   

34 Ludvig Aberg-1 Bogies 2 of 1st 3 holes -4 on back 9 up 18 spots. 

63 Matt Fitzpatrick+1 74 One birdie 3 bogies. 

CUT +1 Missed Horschel+4, Fowler+4, Tom Kim+7.  None of top 10 missed cut.

ROUND 3 Weather light rain in AM.

1 Akshay Bhatia-15 68 Front 9 3 birdies and 2 bogies, birdies 3 of last 5 holes.

2 Danny McCarthy-11( 3 birdies 3 in front 9, 3 more on back.  Outstanding putting. 

3 Brandon Todd-8 70 Three bogies from 9 to 13 but birdies let 2 holes to stay in contention. 

4 H. Matsuyama-7 66 Bogie free Rd with 6 birdies up 30 spots.  Tied for lowest Rd of the day.

4 Ludvig Åberg-6 67 Three birdies on front 9 then 3 birdies 1 bogie on back up 28 spots. 

4 Russell Henley-6 3 bogies from 5 to 10, but like Todd ca0me back to birdie 3 of last 5 holes.

11 Rory McIlroy- DBs 1st hole, then 2 birdies & 2 bogies but birdies last 2 holes to stay in it.

17 J. Spieth-4 Bogies first 2 holes then 3 birdies, but DB disaster on 18 could have been TB.

FINAL RD 

1 Akshay Bhatia-20 67 almost loses after leading the entire tournament by as much as 6 strokes.  Danny McCarthy birdies 8 of last 9 holes to come close to an unbelievable comeback when he sinks a birdie putt on 18 for the lead, but Bhatia also birdies to force a playoff.  On the first playoff hole McCarthy hits his approach shot into the water and Bhatia gets the win.

Bhatia age 22 6’1” 130Lbs, is an amazing player for his size.  He led wire to wire to win his 2nd PGA event.  The first was the Barracuda Championship July 23, 2023 in a playoff with Patrick Rogers (who still has not won a PGA event).  It was held the same dates as THE OPEN.  His win was no fluke, he was tied with Chris Kirk at the end of the 3rd RD at the Sentry this year with outstanding putting.  Faded and finished 14th.  This time he plays 4 solid RDs for the win.   He becomes the last invite to The Masters, his first.